New report published by The Futures Company on the Eurozone crisis
21 February, 2012
— A new report entitled The Future of the Eurozone
, published today by The Futures Company, offers a fresh, more measured view of the eurozone crisis. It forecasts a significant boost to European economies as a result of big growth opportunities emerging directly from the aftermath of the crisis.
Written by Andrew Curry, a London-based Director of The Futures Company, and Matthew Lynn, CEO of Strategy Economics, the report examines five potential outcomes for the eurozone crisis, ranging from survival in its current form to a collapse followed by a return to national currencies. From this analysis it forecasts three big growth opportunities.
First, Poland, with a big population, low debt and strong growth, will emerge as one of the economic powerhouses of Europe. Italy, too, could be one of the big winners, particularly if leaving the euro leads to a devaluation, an outcome that would free its economy to catch up rapidly to its more prosperous Northern neighbors.
Said co-author Curry, "Businesses will be forced to redraw their mental maps of Europe.”
Second, Germany will become a consumer society, relying less on exports and boosting retail and leisure spending, property development, and industries such as financial services.
Said co-author Lynn, “Paradoxically, while the UK is trying to rebalance its economy to become more like Germany, Germany will become more like the UK.”
Finally, new consumer groups will become strong sources of demand. Italy will see a huge rise in female participation in the workforce, with the potential to add €48 billion per year to Italy’s economy, equal to 3% of GDP. In Spain, a dramatic drop in youth unemployment foreseen by The Futures Company means new markets for companies that sell to young people.
Co-author Lynn noted, “No economy can stay in permanent crisis, so the eurozone almost certainly has to change. But even if the euro survives, economic rebalancing will utterly transform the consumer marketplace.”
Added Curry, “At the moment, it's hard to see beyond the headlines, and the transition will be turbulent and unpredictable. But the other side of the eurozone crisis is a much more positive economic future.” For more information please contact:
UK: Tomi Isaacs at +44 (0)20 7955 1874 or email firstname.lastname@example.org
US: Emily Parenti at +1 919 932 8626 or email email@example.com
. About The Future of the Eurozone
The Future of the Eurozone is published as part of The Futures Company's ongoing Futures Perspectives
series of thought-leadership white papers that can be downloaded directly from The Futures Company's website, www.thefuturescompany.com
A companion report entitled Quickening the Pace: What a Slow-Growth West Demands of Brands
, provides a strategic perspective on how businesses can profitably think about consumers and markets in the slow-growth economies of developed Western markets. About The Futures Company
The Futures Company is the leading global foresight and futures consultancy, with a strategic focus on unlocking new sources of growth for clients. Formed in 2008 from the coming together of The Henley Centre, HeadlightVision and Yankelovich, The Futures Company offers a combination of subscription services and consultancy offers that enable clients to find growth opportunities through a deeper, more actionable understanding of the dynamics shaping the future of the marketplace. The Futures Company is a Kantar company within WPP with teams in the UK, US, Mexico, Brazil, Argentina and India. www.thefuturescompany.com
Follow The Futures Company on Twitter @FuturesCo
and on Facebook
. About Strategy Economics
Economics is a consultancy founded by Matthew Lynn, an economics columnist for Bloomberg for 10 years and before that for The Sunday Times
, and now a weekly columnist for The Wall Street Journal’s
MarketWatch. His book Bust: Greece, the Euro, and the Sovereign Debt Crisis
was short-listed for Citibank’s Business Book of the Year in 2011 for its prescient anticipation of the eurozone crisis. His latest book is The Long Depression: The Slump of 2008 to 2031
. Strategy Economics produces a weekly macro newsletter in conjunction with CM Research and has consulted with a wide range of companies on the eurozone economy. www.strategyeconomics.com