The Future of Tracking Studies

_{Originally published in Admap}

EVOLUTION IS A discontinuous process, no less for research methodologies than for the natural world. Tracking studies have been with us for over 50 years now. Every couple of decades has seen a new approach that caused a leap forward in the acceptance and utility of the discipline. These leaps have typically been driven by a combination of changing needs, understanding or data-collection methodology, as summarised in Table 1.

One leap forward occurred in 1976 when Maurice Millward and Gordon Brown conducted their first continuous tracking study. In this case it was not the data collection that was innovative: it was the way the data were analysed that made the real difference. Prior to 1976 tracking data had been collected continuously but then typically aggregated over time on a period-by-period basis. By presenting the data as continuous trends, plotted against the timing and scale of media events, Millward and Brown took tracking from a static report card to a dynamic view of the changing marketplace. The utility of this approach has become widely accepted and it is now an industry standard.

Tracking at the crossroads
Today, tracking is facing new challenges. The sheer complexity of today’s competitive environment challenges its ability to cover the plethora of brand extensions, media choices, retail channels and target groups. As the general public becomes increasingly time-poor and resentful of intrusion, traditional data-collection methodologies are becoming less productive, driving up costs. Finally, senior management demands for fast and coherent feedback pressure market researchers to abandon their traditional gatekeeper role and value speed over quality. In the face of these challenges, some people are asking whether tracking will continue to evolve or whether it will go the way of the dodo.

It is a choice, not a fate
The competitive environment facing brand marketers today is complex and fast-paced. They must have a robust, holistic view of what is happening over time in order to make the right decisions in a timely manner. The role of a tracking study is to provide insight based on what people think, and to do so in a consistent manner over time in order to highlight changes and the drivers of change. Brands are assets that derive their value from what people think of them, so how can we make sensible brand and marketing investment decisions without attitudinal tracking?

Unfortunately, what is in question today is not the purpose of the discipline, but the quality of execution. As an industry we face a basic dilemma. The need to provide very targeted and granular feedback is increasing. The cost of providing that feedback is also increasing, while budgets are decreasing. Most tracking studies are being stretched, trimmed and squeezed in an attempt to get a quart out of a pint pot. It is not realistic, and it undermines the ability of tracking to add real insight where it counts. If tracking is to continue to be a useful and reliable decision- making tool, we must all take a long hard look at what we really must know in order to make our brands successful, then design our studies appropriately.

In the remainder of this article I will propose a five-step programme for making sure that tracking studies continue to evolve.

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