Section image

Stack of Books

Cherries
oil on canvas
22 x 20 in
1981

Penny Machines
oil on canvas
23¾ x 29¾ in
1961

Stack of Books
oil on canvas
30 x 24 in
n.d.

Seven Suckers
oil on canvas
19 x 23 in
1970

Twin Jackpots
oil on canvas
30 x 46 in
1962

Ties
oil on canvas
20 x 26 in
1980

Cake Slices
oil on canvas
20 x 16 in
n.d.

The age of many media

There is another reason for the growth of marketing services – media fragmentation. The old media have become more sophisticated and the new media have proliferated. Technology has improved the effectiveness and development of cable and satellite television, newspapers and periodicals, radio and outdoor, while spawning new media in direct, interactive and the internet. Many of these new media are more measurable and more targeted.

Media consumption habits change with every generation. Even small children know their way round the internet. Decision-makers in media owners and agencies tend to be in their fifties and sixties; their children and grandchildren are shifting in ever greater numbers to multi-tasking on the web, personal video recorders (PVRs), video-on-demand, iPods, video iPods, iPhones, iPads, Kindles, mobiles, podcasts and multi-player internet games. Declining newspaper readership, particularly among younger people and the resultant collapse of established titles are alarming trends.

Among the many new technologies, one of the most interesting is the PVR. This device enables viewers to download television programs on to a hard disk, creating their own television channel, recording programs for screening when they want to see them, and building a library, as an iPod does with music. A PVR also allows you to time-shift programs as you watch, stopping for breaks when you wish. It cannot be long before they are standard equipment in television sets.

What has made observers particularly excited – or worried – about the PVR is its ability to fast-forward or skip commercials. Market research in the US indicates that consumers like to fast-forward advertisements – although they stop at beer commercials for fun and car commercials for information. We could do most of this previously with video recorders, of course. The key question remains the amount of time viewers will continue to devote to television. In some PVRs, the skip button has been omitted and fast-forward speeds limited. In others, little boxes on the PVR screen will contain details of the ads being fast-forwarded. However they develop, such devices will exert more pressure on network television and on agencies to create stronger programming and sponsorship opportunities, along with even more creative advertising ideas. The same will be true of video-on-demand, another new and fast-developing technology. The premium on creativity can only grow.

Many executives are in denial. They believe – or hope – that radical change will not happen on their watch. Yet I know my consumption habits have altered over the past few years – more daily newspapers like The Wall Street Journal and the Financial Times, fewer periodicals. More cable and satellite television, less network. More web surfing and BlackBerry® e-mail. More continuous streaming of CNBC or Bloomberg and now the iPad. More downloading of newspapers and books on my Kindle and now the iPad. I am less willing to wait for detailed analysis in weeklies or fortnightlies. I want news, together with commentary now. Why should I wait 10 days for in-depth analysis of a merger announced on Thursday night? By contrast, though, women seem to be increasing their magazine readership and The Economist powers ahead, having gone well past a one million circulation with increasing advertising revenues, even in these threatening times.

 

Growth of media* in major markets 2005-2010 %
Television 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009f 2010f
North America 0.8 7.7 (2.2) 0.9 (5.2) (3.9)
Latin America 15.1 13.2 10.9 9.9 7.0 10.3
Western Europe 4.0 2.6 4.4 (3.2) (13.3) (1.1)
Emerging Europe 22.2 24.4 21.0 12.5 (13.3) 5.0
Asia Pacific (all) 7.0 8.9 6.7 6.1 (0.7) 5.6
North Asia1 16.8 22.3 13.3 15.0 3.3 7.9
Asean2 13.9 13.7 8.1 10.0 8.4 11.3
Middle East & Africa 3.2 18.8 25.8 29.4 6.4 9.2
World 4.7 8.1 4.0 3.5 (4.6) 1.5
Radio 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009f 2010f
North America 0.2 1.6 (3.3) (9.1) (13.3) (6.8)
Latin America 15.2 5.1 11.0 12.8 2.3 7.0
Western Europe 4.5 2.0 5.0 (1.2) (12.0) (1.9)
Emerging Europe 14.1 34.7 24.6 3.1 (26.4) 2.6
Asia Pacific (all) 2.4 16.5 4.9 5.8 2.3 3.2
North Asia1 1.5 157.9 21.1 24.4 9.1 8.6
Asean2 7.1 3.2 1.9 9.7 16.7 9.2
Middle East & Africa 20.4 11.1 23.5 18.8 5.8 9.3
World 3.1 5.3 2.5 (1.8) (8.8) (1.4)
Newspapers 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009f 2010f
North America 1.8 (0.5) (4.9) (10.2) (18.4) (13.4)
Latin America 17.3 7.2 14.5 4.1 9.0 10.9
Western Europe 1.7 2.4 3.6 (5.7) (16.0) (4.5)
Emerging Europe (10.1) 16.0 10.4 6.1 (28.0) 7.6
Asia Pacific (all) 1.7 (4.6) 2.4 (2.2) (3.6) 0.0
North Asia1 2.4 (14.9) 5.9 4.9 6.4 7.5
Middle East & Africa 15.2 10.5 18.1 12.5 (7.2) 3.1
World 2.2 0.3 1.7 (4.8) (12.4) (4.1)
Magazines 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009f 2010f
North America 7.1 2.7 3.4 (6.5) (9.6) (2.0)
Latin America 22.5 12.1 4.1 18.2 0.7 4.4
Western Europe 1.1 2.8 1.1 (5.7) (21.0) (7.0)
Emerging Europe 48.6 16.9 8.2 6.5 (28.4) 3.2
Asia Pacific (all) 18.6 2.3 0.2 (3.5) (7.9) (3.5)
North Asia1 15.7 16.5 11.5 14.2 (7.4) 4.2
Asean2 7.7 8.8 (1.4) 6.1 (3.1) 6.3
Middle East & Africa 23.5 13.6 11.3 10.8 (9.0) 1.1
World 7.9 3.5 2.5 (4.6) (13.4) (3.1)
Cinema 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009f 2010f
North America 6.3 4.0 7.5 5.0 0.0 0.3
Latin America 17.0 20.4 2.1 17.4 0.4 6.1
Western Europe (0.9) (3.5) (0.2) (11.1) (15.5) (4.2)
Emerging Europe 32.8 26.0 15.4 19.5 (11.8) (1.3)
Asia Pacific (all) 23.0 6.1 53.1 0.9 (3.7) 9.8
Middle East & Africa 55.7 (27.3) (4.4) 22.3 (17.8) (1.4)
World 5.0 (0.6) 7.5 (4.3) (11.3) 0.2
Outdoor 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009f 2010f
North America 10.1 8.5 6.0 (0.7) (7.6) (4.6)
Latin America 18.9 6.9 0.3 7.0 6.6 9.6
Western Europe 4.5 5.0 4.3 (3.1) (11.8) (1.7)
Emerging Europe 21.7 31.1 17.0 13.5 (27.7) 8.7
Asia Pacific (all) 19.9 10.1 6.2 8.4 (5.3) 6.2
North Asia1 12.9 21.6 8.9 35.2 1.8 10.8
Asean2 14.8 33.1 7.8 11.9 6.6 13.5
Middle East & Africa 19.7 30.7 66.3 21.5 (4.2) 8.9
World 13.4 9.8 7.3 4.5 (8.8) 3.0
Internet 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009f 2010f
North America 31.0 27.0 26.7 11.6 4.1 3.6
Latin America 24.0 47.8 57.5 52.9 31.0 35.2
Western Europe 89.2 60.1 45.1 22.2 5.4 8.0
Emerging Europe 91.1 80.3 74.2 59.9 9.6 16.1
Asia Pacific (all) 92.4 34.1 32.8 25.6 14.3 15.7
North Asia1 66.6 41.5 52.0 45.6 23.4 28.8
Asean2 50.3 39.1 72.6 29.7 27.4 29.0
Middle East & Africa 533.7 22.9 (4.2) 61.0 35.3 35.5
World 54.0 36.7 33.7 19.2 7.5 8.9
Source: GroupM
f
Forecast.
1
China, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan.
2
Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam.
(Figures rounded up.)
Principal sources of annual media growth
Absolute contribution in %
  2007 2008 2009f 2010f
North America 1.3 (1.9) (7.8) (4.0)
US 0.8 (2.4) (8.0) (4.3)
Latin America 11.1 10.6 7.0 10.5
Brazil 8.6 12.9 10.5 12.7
Western Europe 6.6 (1.7) (12.8) (1.6)
Emerging Europe 18.8 12.5 (18.2) 6.3
Russia 26.5 17.7 (19.6) 5.8
Asia Pacific (all) 7.3 5.8 (0.4) 5.3
India 20.2 14.0 1.1 6.1
North Asia 14.4 18.1 5.2 10.3
China 17.9 22.6 8.4 12.0
ASEAN 9.3 10.2 6.5 11.6
Middle East & Africa 23.6 20.9 0.2 7.0
GCC and Pan Arab 28.4 29.6 (8.9) 10.6
World 5.7 1.8 (6.6) 0.8
Principal sources of annual media growth
Contribution in $bn
  2007 2008 2009f 2010f
North America 172,321 169,007 155,797 149,640
US 161,515 157,633 144,975 138,752
Latin America 20,526 22,712 24,307 26,860
Brazil 10,788 12,175 13,454 15,161
Western Europe 124,241 122,121 106,520 104,848
Emerging Europe 18,862 21,220 17,364 18,455
Russia 7,864 9,256 7,437 7,872
Asia Pacific (all) 120,348 127,329 126,818 133,583
India 4,223 4,816 4,867 5,164
North Asia 40,427 47,740 50,202 55,388
China 28,730 35,223 38,181 42,771
ASEAN 8,936 9,845 10,480 11,694
Middle East & Africa 11,395 13,780 13,802 14,774
GCC and Pan Arab 2,886 3,740 3,408 3,768
World 467,693 476,169 444,609 448,159
Source: GroupM
f
Forecast.

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