More media, more measurable

Another reason marketing services have grown more quickly is media fragmentation. The old media have become more sophisticated and the new media have proliferated. Technology has improved the effectiveness and development of cable and satellite television, newspapers and periodicals, radio and outdoor, while spawning new media in direct, interactive and the internet. Many of these new media are more measurable and more targeted.

Media consumption habits change with every generation. Look at what a four-year old can do with a computer in a few hours or what bloggers and hackers do with a clear conscience and different value systems. Decision-makers in media owners and agencies tend to be in their fifties and sixties; their children and grandchildren are shifting in ever greater numbers to multi-tasking on the web, personal video recorders (PVRs), video-on-demand, iPods, video iPods, iPhones, mobiles, podcasts and multi-player internet games. Declining newspaper readership, particularly among younger people, and the resultant collapse of established titles, are alarming.

PVRs enable viewers to download television programs on to a hard disk. You can create your own television channel, recording programs for screening when you want to see them, and to build a library, as an iPod does with music. A PVR also allows you to time-shift programs as you watch, stopping for breaks whenever you wish. It cannot be long before they are standard equipment in television sets.

What has made observers particularly excited about the PVR is its ability to fast-forward or skip commercials. Market research in the US indicates that consumers like to fast-forward advertisements – although they stop at beer commercials for fun and car commercials for information.

We could do most of this previously with video recorders, of course, and the key question remains the amount of time viewers will continue to devote to television. In some PVRs, the skip button has been omitted and fast-forward speeds limited. In others, little boxes on the PVR screen will contain details of the ads being fast-forwarded.

Whatever the outcome, such devices will exert more pressure on network television and on agencies to develop stronger programming and sponsorship opportunities, along with even more creative advertising ideas. The same will be true of video-on-demand, another new and fast-developing technology. The premium on creativity can only grow.

Many executives are in denial. They believe – or hope – that radical change will not happen on their watch. Yet I know my consumption habits have altered over the past few years – more daily newspapers like The Wall Street Journal and the Financial Times, fewer periodicals. More cable and satellite television, less network. More web surfing and BlackBerry® e-mail. More continuous streaming of CNBC or Bloomberg.

I am less willing to wait for detailed analysis in weeklies or fortnightlies. I want news, together with commentary now. Why should I wait for 10 days for in-depth analysis of a merger announced on a Thursday night? By contrast, though, women seem to be increasing their magazine readership and The Economist powers ahead, having gone well past a one million circulation with increasing advertising revenues, even in these threatening times.

Principal sources of annual media growth
Absolute contribution in %

  2006 2007 2008f 2009f
North America 30 17 10 (705)
US 27 14 4 (664)
Latin America 7 7 16 207
Brazil 2 3 8 117
Western Europe 22 25 (7) (252)
Emerging Europe 12 13 23 (130)
Russia 6 7 14 (150)
Asia Pacific (all) 26 30 44 624
India 2 3 5 54
North Asia 17 19 55 633
China 20 17 51 583
ASEAN 3 3 7 55
Middle East & Africa 4 8 15 156
Gulf States and Pan-Arab 2 2 6 53

Principal sources of annual media growth
Contribution in $bn

  2006 2007 2008f 2009f
North America 8,070 4,543 1,111 (5,538)
US 7,294 3,626 406 (5,218)
Latin America 1,811 1,852 1,806 1,625
Brazil 554 689 944 921
Western Europe 5,895 6,607 (822) (1,984)
Emerging Europe 3,126 3,288 2,671 (1,018)
Russia 1,501 1,936 1,624 (1,180)
Asia Pacific (all) 6,976 7,772 5,141 4,903
India 638 714 633 422
North Asia 4,687 5,071 6,431 4,972
China 5,406 4,483 5,894 4,580
ASEAN 707 754 771 436
Middle East & Africa 1,104 2,076 1,681 1,226
World 26,982 26,138 11,588 (786)

Principal sources of annual media growth:
BRIC and Next 11
Absolute contribution in %

  2006 2007 2008f 2009f
BRIC 30.0 30.0 78.0 604.0
Brazil 2.0 3.0 8.0 117.0
Russia 6.0 7.0 14.0 (150.0)
India 2.0 3.0 5.0 54.0
China 20.0 17.0 51.0 583.0
Next 11 3.6 7.0 17.1 178.4
Bangladesh 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Egypt 0.7 0.4 6.8 55.0
Indonesia 1.0 1.2 4.1 61.5
Iran
Mexico 1.9 1.9 2.6 36.1
Nigeria 0.1 0.5 1.0 13.3
Pakistan 0.0 0.3 (0.2) 1.5
Philippines 0.3 0.4 0.3 8.3
South Korea (3.7) 0.9 2.1 35.1
Turkey 2.7 1.0 (0.4) (44.8)
Vietnam 0.5 0.3 0.7 12.3

Principal sources of annual media growth:
BRIC and Next 11
Contribution in $bn

  2006 2007 2008f 2009f
BRIC 8,099 7,822 9,095 4,743
Brazil 554 689 944 921
Russia 1,501 1,936 1,624 (1,180)
India 638 714 633 422
China 5,406 4,483 5,894 4,580
Next 11 1,018 1,756 2,085 1,460
Bangladesh 21 8 19 22
Egypt 197 115 788 433
Indonesia 269 315 470 484
Iran
Mexico 500 484 302 284
Nigeria 39 142 121 105
Pakistan 24 32 62 46
Philippines 81 96 38 65
South Korea (988) 233 249 276
Turkey 737 253 (48) (352)
Vietnam 138 77 84 97
Source: GroupM
f
Forecast.